Top image: Apple Park, the company’s Cupertino headquarters, from the air in June 2024. Photo: Nils Huenerfuerst / CC0 via Wikimedia Commons
Apple reports results for its fiscal fourth quarter after the market closes on Monday. It will be the first earnings call for John Ternus, the longtime hardware chief who succeeded Tim Cook as chief executive in September. The call is scheduled for 2 p.m. Pacific (5 p.m. Eastern). For Cupertino, the numbers matter less than what Ternus says about the next three months.
What Wall Street expects
According to LSEG estimates reported by Reuters:
- Revenue of about $113.39 billion, up nearly 11% from a year earlier.
- Net income of about $29.04 billion, up about 6%.
- iPhone revenue of about $56.54 billion, up about 15%, slower than the roughly 22% growth of the prior quarter.
- Services revenue of about $31.56 billion, up almost 10%. That would be the segment’s slowest growth in more than three years.
The quarter ended in late September, so it includes only about nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales. It includes nothing from the iPhone Duo, Apple’s first foldable phone, which went on sale Oct. 23 at a starting price of $1,999. “With only nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales and no iPhone Duo revenue in the quarter, the market reaction is likely to be driven by Christmas guidance,” analysts at the British broker AJ Bell wrote, according to Euronews, via Yahoo Finance.
The memory squeeze
The biggest number may be one Apple does not break out: what it pays for memory. Prices for DRAM and NAND flash, the chips that hold working data and stored files, have climbed as AI data centers buy up supply. In June, TechInsights estimated that the memory and storage components in an iPhone 18 Pro could cost Apple about $196, up from roughly $52 in the iPhone 17 Pro. Reuters reported that Cook described the run-up in memory prices as a “100-year flood.” Cook warned in June that Apple could no longer absorb the increases and would have to raise some prices.
Analysts will press Ternus on gross margin guidance, and on whether more price increases are coming in the holiday quarter.
The Duo and its display
The Duo is Apple’s most important new product in years, and its first weeks have been bumpy. Some buyers reported cracks and lines along the inner display’s central fold, as The Verge and MacRumors reported. MacRumors reported on Oct. 30 that Apple had alerted its stores about the issue. According to the Euronews report, Apple is offering replacements.
Demand still appears strong. Reuters cited IDC analyst Nabila Popal, who expects demand for the Duo to exceed supply. It also cited Bank of America data showing delivery waits of about 79 days.
The skeptics
Not everyone is convinced the iPhone cycle is as strong as the stock suggests. On Oct. 20, Loop Capital cut Apple to hold and lowered its price target to $330 from $370, CNBC reported. The firm projected 79 million iPhone units for the holiday quarter, against a Street estimate of about 85 million.
On the other side, Apple shares have gained about 27% this year, according to Reuters. Apple overtook Nvidia on Friday to become the world’s most valuable listed company again, with a market capitalization of about $5.03 trillion.
What to listen for
- The December-quarter revenue and gross-margin outlook.
- Any comment on Duo supply, the display reports and replacement costs.
- Whether Ternus describes Apple’s AI strategy differently from Cook. Apple has spent far less on AI infrastructure than its rivals. That contrast is sharper after Alphabet’s capital-spending surge.
- Services growth, which funds much of Apple’s margin.
The long view
Apple is one of Santa Clara County’s largest employers and the anchor of Cupertino’s tax base. For most of the Cook era, its quarterly results told a predictable story: steady iPhone upgrades plus growing services. Ternus inherits a harder problem. The AI boom that lifts his neighbors is raising his component costs, while Apple’s own AI products remain a work in progress. Tonight’s call will be his first chance to set expectations publicly.
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