Prop 45’s final weekend: two polls, two different answers, and a Bay Area that is the measure’s toughest crowd

Top image: The California State Capitol in Sacramento. Photo: Tony Webster from Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States / CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

By Gideon Paley, Real Estate Development Reporter

ANALYSIS | What the late polling shows on the CEQA overhaul

Prop 45 heads into the last weekend before Tuesday’s election as a close race in the polls. The measure would put deadlines on environmental review and lawsuits under the California Environmental Quality Act for housing, water, energy and other projects it defines as essential.

PPIC: behind, and slipping

The Public Policy Institute of California’s October statewide survey, taken Oct. 16-22, found 46% of likely voters would vote yes, 50% no and 4% undecided, according to PPIC. In September the same survey had the measure ahead, 49% to 46%. The October likely-voter sample was 1,086, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, so the race is within that range.

The partisan split runs the opposite way from many California housing fights. A majority of Republicans support the measure, while 54% of Democrats oppose it, PPIC found. Gov. Gavin Newsom has stayed on the sidelines, The Sacramento Bee reported. PPIC also measured Prop 40 at 46% yes and 52% no.

Probolsky: ahead, barely

A Probolsky Research poll released Oct. 27 points the other way. The firm headlined its findings “Yes on Prop. 45 leads by a thin margin.” It has not published full toplines, and it says it has no client in the race. Men back the measure 51% to 36%, while women oppose it 42% to 36%, the firm reported.

Probolsky also found the Bay Area to be the measure’s weakest region. “The Bay Area has some of the highest housing costs, yet that’s the region where the highest opposition shows up,” Probolsky said in its release.

The money

Both sides are spending heavily. Filings with the Fair Political Practices Commission as of Oct. 29 showed about $39.6 million raised for the Yes side and about $36.3 million for the No side. The Chronicle’s analysis of who is funding each side breaks down the largest donors.

What supporters and opponents argue

Supporters say CEQA lawsuits and open-ended reviews have become a main cause of delay and cost for new housing and infrastructure, and that firm deadlines would get projects built faster. Opponents, including environmental and some labor groups, say the measure would weaken a key tool communities use to challenge harmful projects. The Chronicle’s editorial board has recommended a No vote. That editorial is separate from this newsroom’s reporting.

What to watch Tuesday

The two polls together suggest the result could come down to turnout, especially among Democrats who are splitting from their usual allies and among Bay Area voters. Many California mail ballots are counted after Election Day, so a close statewide measure may not be called on election night.